Diplomatic Associations and Exchange Rates A study on Russia - Ukraine War

By: Contributor(s): Publication details: New Delhi Associated Management Consultatnts pvt ltd 2023Description: Vol 17 Issue No 3 Pg 08-18Subject(s): In: Indian Journal of FinanceSummary: This paper aimed to analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war n the currencies of two major groups of nation based on their diplomatic association with Russia, viz those against invasion and the non aligned group. The methodology adopted in this paper could be divided into two parts. In first part the event study method was used to analyze the aggregated impact of war on the currencies of the two groups nation. In second part a dynamic conditional correlation -generalized autoregressive conditional heterodastic model was used to analyzed dynamic correlation between the groups. From the first part of the analysis its was found that Russian rouble declined for both groups after the initial economic sanctions but the recovery afterward was more robust against the currencies of the non aligned groups. The second part of the analysis revealved a significant increase in the time varying dynamic conditional correlation between the returns of the two group after the war. This paper is first to examine the impact of the Russia-Ukraine foreign exchange rate from the perspective of diplomatic associations of nations.
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This paper aimed to analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war n the currencies of two major groups of nation based on their diplomatic association with Russia, viz those against invasion and the non aligned group. The methodology adopted in this paper could be divided into two parts. In first part the event study method was used to analyze the aggregated impact of war on the currencies of the two groups nation. In second part a dynamic conditional correlation -generalized autoregressive conditional heterodastic model was used to analyzed dynamic correlation between the groups. From the first part of the analysis its was found that Russian rouble declined for both groups after the initial economic sanctions but the recovery afterward was more robust against the currencies of the non aligned groups. The second part of the analysis revealved a significant increase in the time varying dynamic conditional correlation between the returns of the two group after the war. This paper is first to examine the impact of the Russia-Ukraine foreign exchange rate from the perspective of diplomatic associations of nations.

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